How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is another twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.