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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|