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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.